SUPERSEDED by docs/marketing/MIZOKI_SHOPIFY_OFFERING_AUG2026.md

MIZ OKI SIGNAL FOR SHOPIFY

The net-contribution offering

Version: r1.0 · August 2026 Reconcile against: # MIZ OKI 3.5/docs/marketing/mizoki-shopify-net-yield-positioning.md (existing positioning doc — this offering extends it, and any conflict resolves to that file) Status vocabulary: LIVE · PARTIAL · IN BUILD · PROPOSED

1. WHY SHOPIFY IS THE RIGHT WEDGE

Every claim in the platform's net-yield thesis requires data most advertisers cannot produce. Shopify merchants already have all of it in one system:

The consequence: for a Shopify merchant, "revenue is not contribution" stops being a thesis and becomes an arithmetic the platform can actually perform. For a merchant on a custom stack, the same claim requires a six-week data engagement before the first number.

This is the shortest distance between the platform's strongest argument and a customer who can verify it.

2. THE ONE-SENTENCE OFFER

Your ad platforms report revenue. Shopify knows what that revenue actually earned you after COGS, refunds, discounts, fees, and fulfillment. MIZ OKI Signal connects the two — and proves which spend caused the difference.

3. WHAT A SHOPIFY MERCHANT GETS, BY LOOP

PROVE — causal contribution [PARTIAL]

Qualified holdouts registered before activation. CATE estimation across S-, T-, X-, and doubly-robust learners selected by assignment and overlap diagnostics. Refutation battery on every estimate. Platform-reported conversions are treated as evidence, never as truth.

PROFIT — net yield [IN BUILD]

Revenue → refunds and observed returns → fulfillment and required costs → net contribution.

Two rules that make this credible rather than convenient: - Actual-only until at least one observed return cycle exists per SKU. No modeled return rate substitutes for an observed one. - Missing required costs leave a row incomplete and excluded. Costs are never invented to complete a calculation.

NET_YIELD_WRITEBACK remains OFF. The platform does not claim to bid on net contribution.

ANTICIPATE — intent evidence [PREVIEW · IN DEVELOPMENT]

The Shopify Web Pixel is already the collector. Signal capture extends the existing pixel — a second collector is a build error. Content-free behavioral sequence only, with per-module retention bounds and session-end purge.

GOVERN — the gates [LIVE]

Consent gate fail-closed. GDPR erasure cascade across every store. O-1 privacy lock (DISALLOWED_KEYSTROKE_DYNAMICS). Observe-only default on every adapter.

4. THE SHOPIFY-NATIVE DECISION JOBS

The generic J-01…J-06 registry, instantiated against data a merchant actually has:

J-02 is the lead story and it is a Shopify story natively: SIG-042 is literally a mobile checkout latency incident. A merchant recognizes it immediately because it has happened to them.

J-03 is the one that closes deals. Most merchants cannot currently answer "which SKUs am I advertising into a loss after returns?" — and it is a question they know they should be able to answer.

5. HIGH-RETURN CATEGORIES — THE SHARPEST WEDGE

Apparel, footwear, and furniture carry return rates where platform ROAS and net contribution diverge most violently. A campaign at 4× reported ROAS with a 40% return rate and a 55% gross margin can be contribution-negative while every dashboard shows success.

These merchants are the ideal first pilot. The gap between what they're told and what they earn is largest, so the platform's value is most visible — and most verifiable against their own Shopify data.

6. FIVE-PHASE INTEGRATION

Each phase has an acceptance criterion. No phase advances on assertion.

PHASE 1 — Commerce truth (observe-only)

Connect Orders, Refunds, InventoryItem costs, discounts, and payment fees. Establish SKU-level contribution baseline. Acceptance: contribution computed for every SKU with complete cost data; incomplete rows visibly excluded with a named missing field. No mutation, no writeback.

PHASE 2 — Behavioral signal

Extend the existing Web Pixel. Content-free events only, batched, consent-gated. Acceptance: consent-off produces zero persistence; O-1 payloads reject with the explicit tag; erasure round-trip verified across every new field; no second collector exists.

PHASE 3 — Causal design

Register the first holdout. Power analysis, contamination check, outcome-integrity validation before the test window opens. Acceptance: a pre-registered test with a declared estimand, population, and horizon — registered before any activation, and refutable.

PHASE 4 — Net yield evidence

Reconcile contribution economics against the causal estimate. Return cycles observed, not modeled. Acceptance: at least one complete observed return cycle per SKU in the analyzed set; NET_YIELD_WRITEBACK still OFF; recommendations only.

PHASE 5 — Governed recommendation

Decision Jobs producing ValidationPassport records with human approval required. Acceptance: every recommendation carries evidence, alternatives, rejected options, authority record, and rollback path. Execution remains RECOMMEND / NO MUTATION.

Nothing in these five phases enables autonomous action. Bounded authority is a separate decision at pilot completion, gated on Brier ≤ 0.20, AUC ≥ 0.72, and stable lift across at least two purchase cycles.

7. WHAT THIS IS NOT

Stated plainly, because Shopify merchants have been sold each of these:

• Not an attribution app. It does not re-credit conversions with a better model.
• Not a bid manager. Adapters default observe-only; execution authority is separate.
• Not a profit dashboard. Dashboards report. This produces governed decisions with evidence.
• Not a personalization engine. Creative compatibility is a bounded input to incremental economics, never a psychological profile.
• Not autonomous. Every action in the pilot period requires human approval.

8. PRICING AND ENTRY POSTURE

Entry is the 90-Day Causal Growth Control Pilot — one brand, agreed source systems, two consequential decision classes. Standard onboarding, not a bespoke engagement.

Owner inputs required before Phase 1: tenant selection, net_yield_costs.yaml completion, and the two decision classes. Cost data quality is the single largest determinant of time-to-first-evidence, and merchants who have never maintained unit_cost should be told that during scoping rather than discovering it in week three.

9. IMMEDIATE ACTIONS

1. Reconcile against mizoki-shopify-net-yield-positioning.md — that file governs
2. Identify one high-return-category pilot candidate
3. Confirm the merchant maintains variant-level unit_cost, or plan the ingest
4. Wire Phase 1 acceptance as a test, not a checklist

All capability claims carry status labels. Illustrative figures are not production telemetry or customer results. Preview labels flip only after verified pilot numbers enter the claim ledger.