DEMO_FIVE_ACT_TRACE_2026-08-25.json
{
"demo": "MIZ OKI SIGNAL \u2014 Live Demo (Five-Act Arc)",
"version": "v1.0",
"generated_at": "2026-08-25T17:42:52.894911+00:00",
"governing_plan": "docs/product/DEMO_PLAN_r2.1.md",
"total_duration": "20 min (5-min exec cut = Acts 1+5 only)",
"acts": [
{
"act": 1,
"title": "The Lie",
"duration": "3 min",
"beat": "Platform dashboards vs bank account: same campaign, 4x reported ROAS, negative contribution after returns.",
"closer": "We optimize the number your bank account reports.",
"data": {
"report": "L1 \u2014 Profit-Leak Report",
"label": "ILLUSTRATIVE",
"tenant_id": "demo-fixtures",
"generated_at": "2026-08-25T17:42:53.196193+00:00",
"period": "Monthly (illustrative scenario)",
"summary": {
"total_skus_analyzed": 847,
"losing_skus": 23,
"loss_after_returns_usd": -14280.0,
"median_return_rate": 0.42,
"source": "net_yield + order_economics (illustrative scenario)"
},
"top_losers": [
{
"sku": "SKU-DEMO-7742",
"reported_roas": 4.2,
"contribution_after_returns": -620.0,
"return_rate": 0.58,
"ad_spend": 2800.0,
"reason": "58% return rate wipes 4.2x reported ROAS"
},
{
"sku": "SKU-DEMO-3391",
"reported_roas": 3.1,
"contribution_after_returns": -410.0,
"return_rate": 0.44,
"ad_spend": 1900.0,
"reason": "high COGS + 44% returns = negative contribution"
},
{
"sku": "SKU-DEMO-9105",
"reported_roas": 2.8,
"contribution_after_returns": -180.0,
"return_rate": 0.39,
"ad_spend": 950.0,
"reason": "shipping cost exceeds margin after returns"
}
],
"excluded_rows": [
{
"sku": "SKU-DEMO-2200",
"reason": "unit_cost not declared \u2014 row excluded, not estimated",
"impact": "contribution unknown; named as onboarding gap"
}
],
"methodology": "Revenue minus refunds/returns (actual only until 1 cycle/SKU) minus COGS minus fees minus fulfillment. Excluded rows with the named missing cost. Platform-reported ROAS vs governed contribution shown side by side."
},
"watermark": "SYNTHETIC"
},
{
"act": 2,
"title": "The Anticipation",
"duration": "4 min",
"beat": "Live session trace -> anticipatory intent evidence from content-free signal. Then the O-1 moment: submit a keystroke-dynamics payload on stage.",
"o1_result": {
"scenario": "O-1 keystroke dynamics",
"rejected": true,
"reason": "DISALLOWED_KEYSTROKE_DYNAMICS"
},
"spine_tenant": "demo-fixtures",
"spine_job": "J-02",
"framing": "anticipatory intent evidence from content-free signal",
"watermark": "SYNTHETIC"
},
{
"act": 3,
"title": "The Proof",
"duration": "4 min",
"beat": "Register a holdout (declared estimand, power) -> CATE estimate -> refutation battery with one test failing and the estimate WITHHELD. Showing our system catch our own weak estimate outsells any passing metric.",
"passport_seal": true,
"passport_chain": true,
"del_score": 86.0,
"executed": false,
"watermark": "SYNTHETIC"
},
{
"act": 4,
"title": "The Profit",
"duration": "4 min",
"beat": "Net-yield waterfall with one row EXCLUDED and the missing cost named -> dosage curve: 'your profit-maximizing spend is $X, not your budget' (CIs on screen) -> J-03 losers list.",
"dosage_optimum": {
"d_star": 4047.62,
"marginal_profit_at_dstar": 0.0
},
"dosage_label": "ILLUSTRATIVE",
"dosage_method": "r_learner_local_marginal_moment_wls_v1",
"del_threshold": 80.0,
"del_ceiling": 100.0,
"losers_count": 3,
"excluded_count": 1,
"watermark": "SYNTHETIC"
},
{
"act": 5,
"title": "The Restraint",
"duration": "4 min",
"beat": "A decision runs the DCP: passport -> DEL score plotted ON the Clipped-ReLU curve -> below threshold -> WITHHOLD with named reason. Then the live F4 reservation halting at approval. Close: Restraint Ledger + the Firestore correction story.",
"del_curve_formula": "authorization(s) = clip(max(0, s - threshold), 0, ceiling - threshold)",
"withheld_decisions": 2,
"f4_gates_halted": true,
"f4_gates": [
"flag_gate: HALT \u2014 F4_CALIBRATION is not 'true'; nothing submitted",
"approval_gate: HALT \u2014 routes L2 decision queue, human approval required",
"two_key_gate: HALT \u2014 actuator not registered; approved decision cannot execute"
],
"firestore_correction_note": "The deploy gate auto-corrected our own whitepaper (Firestore/Neo4j). Even our docs pass through the gate.",
"watermark": "SYNTHETIC (F4 reservation: DEMO tenant, zero-spend)"
},
{
"act": "leave-behind",
"title": "Pilot Report + 90-Day One-Pager",
"duration": "1 min",
"beat": "Sample weekly pilot report (ILLUSTRATIVE watermark) + 90-day pilot one-pager.",
"pilot_report_spec": "docs/product/PILOT_REPORT_SPEC_v1.md",
"watermark": "ILLUSTRATIVE"
}
],
"provenance_chain": [
{
"act": "1",
"title": "The Lie",
"d_item": "D-4",
"source": "scripts/demo/report_views.py::build_l1_profit_leak_report",
"production_path": "services/net-yield + order_economics stores",
"claim_label": "ILLUSTRATIVE"
},
{
"act": "2",
"title": "The Anticipation",
"d_item": "D-1, D-2",
"source": "scripts/demo/sig042_demo.py + scripts/demo/rejection_scenarios.py",
"production_path": "contracts/mizoki_contracts/passport_fixtures.py (SIG-042), src/shared/mizoki_intent/signal.py (O-1 validators)",
"claim_label": "LIVE (validators are production code)"
},
{
"act": "3",
"title": "The Proof",
"d_item": "D-1",
"source": "scripts/demo/sig042_demo.py::run_sig042_tier1",
"production_path": "contracts/mizoki_contracts/passport_fixtures.py (harness), contracts/mizoki_contracts/passport_package.py (seal+chain)",
"claim_label": "LIVE (passport assembly is production code)"
},
{
"act": "4",
"title": "The Profit",
"d_item": "D-3, D-4",
"source": "scripts/demo/curve_views.py + scripts/demo/report_views.py",
"production_path": "services/lift-engine/src/core/continuous_dosage.py (dosage model), services/service-policy-engine/main.py (DEL evaluator)",
"claim_label": "ILLUSTRATIVE (synthetic coefficients; curve shape is production)"
},
{
"act": "5",
"title": "The Restraint",
"d_item": "D-3, D-4, D-5",
"source": "scripts/demo/curve_views.py (DEL curve) + scripts/demo/report_views.py (restraint ledger) + scripts/demo/f4_demo.py (F4 three-gate halt)",
"production_path": "services/service-decision-control-plane/main.py (DCP/WITHHOLD), src/shared/growth_control/f4_calibration/ (F4 engine)",
"claim_label": "LIVE (F4 engine + DCP are production; demo tenant isolated)"
},
{
"act": "leave-behind",
"title": "Pilot Report + 90-day One-Pager",
"d_item": "D-4",
"source": "docs/product/PILOT_REPORT_SPEC_v1.md",
"production_path": "report format spec (no live data in demo)",
"claim_label": "ILLUSTRATIVE"
}
],
"isolation": {
"tenant": "demo-fixtures (FIXTURE_TENANT)",
"geos": [
"DEMO-XX",
"DEMO-YY"
],
"spend_caps": "all zero",
"writebacks": "all false",
"execution_adapters": "all off"
},
"guardrails": {
"watermark": "SYNTHETIC on every screen",
"framing": "anticipatory intent evidence from content-free signal",
"banned": "mind-reading language (content_qa gates the script)",
"shadow_surfaces": "flag state shown on screen",
"failure_is_content": true
}
}