For independent Shopify merchants · The 3-Minute Profit Truth Audit runs on a synthetic demo store
§01 · The number your bank account reports
MIZ OKI Signal for Shopify is built to reconcile what your ad platforms report against what your bank account actually keeps. Observe-only by default: we never touch your campaigns without your permission.
The audit runs on a synthetic demo store with illustrative numbers. No store is connected from this page, and nothing here is a merchant result.
Built, pre-benchmark. Availability and setup are confirmed with you.
What the ad platform reports
4.00×
Revenue the platforms claim, divided by what you paid them.
After real costs
1.60×
Only the sales the ads actually caused, after their own product cost, shipping, fees and returns, divided by the same ad spend.
§02 · Why the platform number flatters you
Every ad platform reports the sales that happened after its own ads. None of them subtract what those sales cost you, or ask whether the buyer was already on the way.
01 / Product, shipping, fees
Product cost, packing, shipping and payment fees come out before a sale is worth anything. The audit starts with your own three cost inputs; the payment-fee line uses an illustrative gateway rate, and everything else about the demo store (its baseline share, repeat rates, freight and returns profiles) is a synthetic preset, labelled as such.
Start the audit →02 / Returns
A returned order still paid for the click, the box and the trip both ways. Returns turn winning campaigns into losing ones quietly, SKU by SKU.
See the waterfall →03 / Orders that were coming anyway
Retargeting and brand campaigns take credit for shoppers who were already on the way back. Those sales are set aside before any cost is counted against the ads. Experiment tools are built to test what would have happened without the ads, when your order volume supports it.
What is built today →§03 · The 3-Minute Profit Truth Audit
Three minutes is the design target for the four steps. Pick a demo store, set three costs, read the waterfall, see which campaigns hide their worth, then decide whether a pilot audit of your own store is worth a conversation.
Synthetic demo storeIllustrative numbers. Every figure in these four steps comes from a synthetic demo store and the costs you set below. None of it is your store's result, and the page reads nothing from your store.
Step 1 of 4
The synthetic demo store is ready to go. Connecting your own store is not available from this page: it happens inside MIZ OKI's authenticated onboarding, after the pilot audit request in step four.
Store connection starts from your signed-in MIZ OKI workspace, through Shopify's own authorization screen, and is checked for real deliveries before anything relies on the data. This public page cannot start it, so the control below does nothing.
Read access to your store data, so Signal can reconcile it:
Write access to one thing only:
Never: write access to your orders, products, prices, discounts, customers, script tags or store settings; no analytics or marketing-event access; and no access of any kind to your ad accounts. Shopify shows you the full list on its authorization screen before you grant anything, and you can revoke it from your Shopify admin at any time.
Three fictional stores with illustrative numbers. Switch between them any time; the waterfall and the campaign cards update instantly.
A $100 average order, a returns habit, and a retargeting campaign that mostly re-sells to people already on their way back.
What the product itself costs you, as a share of its selling price. Illustrative default for this demo store.
35%
10%80%
Postage and packaging for one order, in dollars. Payment fees are added separately at an illustrative gateway rate.
$0.00$60.00
The share of reported revenue you expect to come back as returns and restocking. Illustrative default for this demo store.
8%
0%30%
Nothing you type here is stored or sent anywhere. The three values only feed the arithmetic on this page.
One month of the Apparel DTC Brand demo store: the revenue the ad platforms reported, the part that was coming anyway, and what the rest actually left in the bank. Illustrative numbers; your costs from step one are already applied.
| Ad-reported gross revenue | $100,000 | |
|---|---|---|
| Of which: sales that were coming anyway (partitioned out, not a cost) | −$11,000 | |
| Incremental revenue: what the ads actually caused | $89,000 | |
| Less: product cost on those sales | −$31,150 | |
| Less: shipping and payment fees on those orders | −$10,680 | |
| Less: returns and restocking on those sales | −$7,120 | |
| Less: ad spend | −$25,000 | |
| Equals: true net cash contribution | +$15,050 |
Platform-reported return on ad spend
4.00×
Reported revenue divided by ad spend. This is the number the dashboard celebrates.
Real return after costs
1.60×
Incremental revenue after its own product cost, shipping, fees and returns, divided by the same ad spend. Below 1.00× the ads lose money.
How each line is worked out (illustrative demo store). Gross revenue is split first into the sales that were coming anyway and the sales the ads caused. Every cost is then taken on the ads' share only, so an order that would have happened anyway never has its product, shipping or returns charged to the ads. The arithmetic is exact: incremental revenue minus the four deductions and the ad spend equals the net line, to the dollar.
The same costs, campaign by campaign, with the SKU each one sells most. Illustrative numbers for the Apparel DTC Brand demo store; the platform's ranking and the bank account's ranking disagree.
Campaign
· net this month $0 · repeat orders later +$0
The platform reports a below-average return, yet with the repeat orders their buyers place within 90 days counted, these campaigns rank higher than the platform ranked them: low returns, light freight, and buyers who come back on their own.
Prospecting · broad interests
3.2% of orders come back · freight runs 30% below your average · 0% of its buyers were coming anyway · 38% reorder within 90 days · net this month +$435 · repeat orders later +$1,989.30
Lookalike · past buyers
3.2% of orders come back · freight runs 30% below your average · 0% of its buyers were coming anyway · 44% reorder within 90 days · net this month +$1,235 · repeat orders later +$2,303.40
No campaign is under-rated by the platform at these costs.
Big platform numbers that lose money once the buyers who were coming anyway are set aside and the real costs of the rest are counted, even with repeat orders added: heavy returns, fragile freight, thin incremental sales.
Retargeting · recent visitors
23.6% of orders come back · freight runs 50% above your average · 40% of its buyers were coming anyway · 9% reorder within 90 days · net this month −$832 · repeat orders later +$251.50
No campaign loses money after real costs with repeat orders added at these inputs.
Earning about what the platform's ranking suggests: Shopping ads · non-brand (4.86× reported, 2.15× after costs this month, 2.54× with repeat orders; +$14,212 this month).
Each campaign is split the same way as the store: the sales that were coming anyway are set aside first, and product cost, shipping, fees and returns are charged only on the sales the campaign caused. "After real costs" and "net this month" use exactly the waterfall's month, so the campaigns' month nets add up to the waterfall's net to the dollar. "With 90-day repeat orders" adds, separately, the repeat orders those buyers place later, which the platform never reported and the waterfall does not include; it is a synthetic rate for the demo store, rounded to the cent, and it is what the cards rank on. Repeat buying is what lets a modest platform number be a hidden winner.
For your own store, the only honest number comes from your own orders, costs and returns. That is what the pilot audit reads, observe-only, before anyone changes anything.
Synthetic demo store · illustrative numbers
$3,850
On the Apparel DTC Brand demo store, this much of its $25,000 monthly ad spend sits on 1 campaign that loses money after real costs even with repeat orders added: misallocated spend, at the costs you set. It is a reading of a fictional store, not a measurement of yours.
Request Full 90-Day Pilot AuditThe pilot audit's terms and current availability are confirmed when you ask. No price is published on this page; pricing is confirmed directly.
30-day observe-only baselineWe read your orders, costs and returns through the store connection and change nothing while we do.
Reconciled SKU-level contribution margin worksheetBuilt from your own cost worksheet. A missing product cost is never guessed: that item is left out and flagged as a gap.
Your first registered holdout test, designed and scheduledA small, identical slice of shoppers who do not see the ads, so you learn what the ads actually caused, when your order volume supports it.
Early-stage product. Built, pre-benchmark: none of this machinery has produced a merchant readout yet, and no return on ad spend is promised.
All four steps are shown on this page. Turn on JavaScript to walk them one at a time and change the costs.
§04 · Keep the final say
Connecting your store is not permission to change your ad spend, your bids or your campaigns. Signal starts in observe-only. Moving beyond recommendations requires your explicit authorization and the relevant checks, every time.
Net-yield pricing and bidding · Preview · in development
Pricing every order at what it truly nets, and letting that number steer the ad platforms' own bidding, is built in the open and labelled honestly until a real pilot writes verified numbers.
§05 · Before you connect
No. Everything in the 3-Minute Profit Truth Audit runs on a synthetic demo store with illustrative numbers, shaped by the three costs you set. The page reads nothing from your store. Your store's number comes only from your own orders, costs and returns, which is what the pilot audit is for.
Read access to your store data, plus permission to install Signal's own measurement pixel. The exact list is in step one of the audit and on Shopify's authorization screen. It never includes write access to your orders, products, prices or store settings, and nothing on it reaches your ad accounts.
Built: connecting a Shopify store through our authenticated onboarding, tied to your own workspace; cost import from your own cost worksheet; and the holdout and experiment machinery. Built does not mean proven on your store, and none of it has produced a merchant readout yet. Net-yield pricing and bidding, and anticipatory intent, remain Preview · in development until the required evidence and approvals exist.
Not on connection, and not without your permission. The starting posture is observe-only. Any broader authority depends on the action, the evidence, your permissions and the applicable controls. This page does not offer unrestricted autonomous ad spending.
Start with data quality and economics. A low-volume store may not support a reliable store-level holdout result. The scope should match what your data can establish; a bigger plan cannot manufacture statistical evidence.
No, and never a guaranteed outcome. Neither a revenue multiple nor a lower acquisition cost is promised. Any future performance claim must come from a measured benchmark or a properly documented pilot; the figures on this page are illustrative.
Request the pilot audit, and we confirm direct onboarding, availability and current terms with you. MIZ OKI Signal for Shopify is not an App Store listing and does not offer a self-serve trial. Pricing is confirmed directly.
§06 · Explore Signal
The demos below run on illustrative or synthetic data. None of it is a customer result.
Illustrative demo
Watch an acquisition decision move from evidence to a governed recommendation, including the move the system refuses to make.
Illustrative scenario
Follow a cost-per-acquisition spike where a slower mobile checkout, not the auction, is the leading explanation, and see why the plan holds media changes until a test checks it.
Synthetic demonstration
Explore one fictional brand's evidence, the proof still missing and a controlled next step in an interactive workspace.
Founder letters on the next dollar, from the MIZ OKI Journal.
All Journal letters →MIZ OKI Signal for Shopify
Ready to talk about your own store? Request the full 90-day pilot audit.