Immediate
Critical decay or negative-feedback spikes: the creative is replaced outright. Audience trust is the asset being protected.
§ SIGNAL / CREATIVE INTELLIGENCE / FILED 2026
Every creative has a fatigue curve: the audience that responded stops responding, frequency climbs, and the platform quietly charges more for less. Signal treats decay as a statistical event to detect early — not a monthly report to regret.
§01 · Detection
Fatigue triggers — operating defaults, tunable per account
| Signal | Trigger | Discipline |
|---|---|---|
| Click-through / conversion decay | z-score > 2 vs 7-day baseline | confirmed on two consecutive windows |
| Forecast decline | P(decline) > 0.7 | prediction, then verification — never prediction alone |
| Negative feedback | hides & "not relevant" rate watched | audience protection outranks reach |
| Evidence floor | ≥ 1,000 impressions | no creative is judged on noise |
Two-window confirmation is the point: one bad afternoon is weather. Two consecutive windows of statistically significant decay is a trend — and only trends trigger action.
§02 · Rotation
Critical decay or negative-feedback spikes: the creative is replaced outright. Audience trust is the asset being protected.
Traffic shifts to the replacement in steps, letting delivery re-learn without the reset penalty of a hard swap.
90% moves to the new creative; 10% stays on the old one as a live comparison (operating default) — the rotation itself is measured, not assumed.
Replacement candidates are chosen by sampling from each creative's performance posterior — exploration weighted by evidence, with a freshness bonus.
Replacements pass a semantic-diversity check before serving: a near-duplicate of a fatigued creative inherits its fatigue, so near-duplicates are refused.
§03 · Learning
Creative tests run as bandits — Thompson sampling by default, upper-confidence-bound where regret guarantees matter — so learning reallocates impressions continuously instead of waiting out a fixed A/B calendar.
Creatives are scored on relevance, engagement, freshness, differentiation from the rest of the pool, and brand safety — a weighted composite, with brand safety as a floor rather than a weight.
Stated plainly: triggers and weights on this page are operating defaults, not promised outcomes. Whether a rotation actually recovered performance is settled by the holdback comparison and written to the credit ledger.
§04 · See it run
The Signal Factory desk runs the full seven-stage SRPVDAL loop on live runtime — including a deliberate guardrail block you'll watch get caught in red. No signup, no sales call.